About
Sirmione loves its tourists and the people who visit every year. sirmione.live exists to help keep it that way without making overtourism worse: we tell you when the centre will be crowded and when it will be quieter. You pick the better days, enjoy Sirmione more, and contribute to sustainable tourism on Lake Garda.
What we measure
We calculate a crowding score from 0 to 1. This translates into a continuous colour band from green through yellow to red. The closer the colour is to red, the busier the day will be. The deepest shades correspond to the top 20 percent of the busiest days on record.
Predictive signals
Our system analyses many factors before giving you a result. We use hourly weather forecasts, public holiday calendars from six European nations, German school holidays and a public events calendar. All these elements heavily influence tourist flows to Lake Garda.
Real car park measurements
Our only field test is the availability of parking spaces. We read the real-time occupancy of Sirmione's public visitor car parks. Full car parks are the most precise physical indicator to confirm the presence of tourists on the peninsula.
Weekly calibration
The mathematical model learns from its mistakes and updates every week. It is in public testing: the forecasts you see are experimental and not yet validated. We show them openly while we measure their accuracy, comparing them against the real car park occupancy day by day.
System limits
The forecast is an estimate, not a guarantee. The system cannot predict sudden events or last-minute road closures, and real conditions can change. Estimates beyond 10 days indicate a general trend, not a day-by-day detail.
Data updated three times a day.